Group I - 2026 World Cup: Team-by-Team Analysis

Overview

Group I brings together France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq in a line-up packed with storylines and emotion. France arrive as overwhelming favourites, but several credible outsiders could throw a spanner in the works.

Group breakdown:

• France: world No. 1, tournament favourite, eyeing the title

• Senegal: world No. 14, AFCON 2024 runners-up, proven experience

• Norway: world No. 31, back after 28 years, Haaland at his peak

• Iraq: world No. 57, back after 40 years away, historic qualification

The group will be played from 16 to 26 June 2026 on the US East Coast (New York, Philadelphia, Boston). France vs Senegal on 16 June at MetLife Stadium will be the headline fixture of the group.

🇫🇷 FRANCE – Overall Favourites but a Tricky Group

France head into the 2026 World Cup as overwhelming favourites and the undisputed leaders of Group I. Ranked No. 1 in the FIFA standings with 16 previous appearances, Les Bleus are chasing a third world title.

French line-up:

• Head coach Didier Deschamps: his final tournament in charge

• Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): at the attacking peak of his career

• Aurélien Tchouaméni: a world-class defensive midfielder

• Dembélé, Doué, Barcola, Olise: an impressive attacking pool

• A complete squad with exceptional depth
  

France approach the 2026 World Cup with a powerful squad featuring seven players with more than 60 caps, alongside plenty of newcomers for rotation.

Identified strengths:

• Tournament favourites: outright winner odds around 5.6–6.0

• Mbappé in his prime at Real Madrid: a decisive attacking leader

• An impressive offensive pool (Dembélé, Doué, Barcola)

• A complete squad with rare depth in every position

• Vast experience: quarter-finals in 5 of the last 6 World Cups

• Group I winner odds of 1.45 reflect logical dominance

Concerns:

• A fragile defence following the gradual fade of the 2018 generation

• Deschamps’ final tournament: possible lapses in focus

• Relative inexperience against quick counter-attacking sides

• France lost the 2022 final on penalties: possible lingering trauma

Odds of 1.45 to win the group reflect logical dominance despite serious challengers. France should finish top.

🇸🇳 SENEGAL – AFCON Runners-Up, Credible for 2nd Place

Senegal head into the 2026 World Cup as France’s main challenger. Runners-up at AFCON 2024 and ranked 14th, Senegal have clear ambitions of direct qualification and have built a side capable of competing.

Senegalese pedigree:

• 3 World Cup appearances: proven experience

• Sadio Mané: emotional leader and creative attacking spark

• Ismaïla Sarr: dynamic, dangerous winger

• A side capable of going toe-to-toe with the best
  

Senegal rely on a talented generation accustomed to big stages, with a recognised leader in Mané.

Senegal’s key men:

• Sadio Mané: emotional leader and creator

• Ismaïla Sarr (Fenerbahçe): explosive, dangerous winger

• An experienced squad used to big occasions

Major strengths:

• Mané a recognised emotional leader and creative attacking force

• Sarr a dangerous winger in transition

• Proven World Cup experience (3 appearances)

• A widely recognised competitive mentality and discipline

• Odds of around 1.50 for 2nd place show genuine credibility

Identified weaknesses:

• Relative inexperience against the world’s top sides

• Squad depth clearly inferior to France

• Lack of a true elite-level striker
  

At odds of 4.40 to win the group, Senegal remain a credible challenger to France. Qualification at 1.50 reflects a strong probability of advancing.

🇳🇴 NORWAY – Spectacular Return with Haaland at His Peak

Norway return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998, after a 28-year absence. The Scandinavians arrive with an ambitious project led by Erling Haaland at the peak of his powers and a hunger for a historic run.

Norway’s set-up:

• Return after 28 years away: a national event

• Erling Haaland (Manchester City): the king of modern strikers

• A capable, modern interim head coach

• A young, talented squad with genuine ambition

• A side capable of surprising the best teams

Norway are back at the World Cup with Haaland at the peak of his powers and a talented generation capable of competing.

Norway’s key men:

• Erling Haaland: a dominant, decisive striker

• A modern, flexible collective set-up

• Attacking aggression capable of pressing the best sides
  

Major strengths:

• Haaland at his attacking peak: 50+ goals in 50 games

• A return after 28 years bringing energy and pride

• A young squad full of ambition

• Attacking aggression and an effective press

• Odds of around 1.40–1.50 for 2nd place show genuine credibility
  

Clear limitations:

• Inexperience of the global tournament stage since 1998

• Squad depth that can be improved at the highest level

• A potentially fragile defence against top sides

At odds of 26.00 to win the group, Norway remain a serious outsider. Qualification at 1.40 suggests Haaland can inspire a memorable run.

🇮🇶 IRAQ – Historic Return After 40 Years

Iraq are playing at their first World Cup since 1986 after a 40-year absence, marking a historic return for a nation ravaged by conflict. The Lions of Mesopotamia arrive with pride and modest but real ambitions of springing surprises.

Iraqi context:

• Return after 40 years away: a historic national event

• Qualification secured during a period of conflict: a courageous achievement

• National pride fully galvanising the team
  

Iraq embody the dream of nations facing global giants with pride despite difficult circumstances.

Iraq’s key men:

• A side organised collectively and tactically disciplined

• Players experienced in Asian competitions

• Clear leadership despite limited resources

Major strengths:

• National pride and the unique energy of a comeback

• A tight-knit collective used to Asian competition

• A compact defensive set-up and discipline

• Capability of pulling off the occasional surprise

• Qualification achieved in difficult circumstances

Clear limitations:

• Very limited squad depth at the highest level

• A lack of world-class stars across the pitch

• Markedly inferior infrastructure and resources

• Inexperience of the global tournament stage since 1986

Odds of 500.00 to win the group reflect their status as pure outsiders. Iraq are aiming to do their participation justice and pull off at least one surprise.

📊 Official Odds

The pecking order of the odds clearly reflects French dominance and the relative opportunities on offer:

Rank 1: 🇫🇷 France → Group winner: 1.45 | Qualification: 1.10

Rank 2: 🇸🇳 Senegal → Group winner: 4.40 | Qualification: 1.50

Rank 3: 🇳🇴 Norway → Group winner: 26.00 | Qualification: 1.40

Rank 4: 🇮🇶 Iraq → Group winner: 500.00 | Qualification: 12.00

France at 1.45 reflects logical dominance despite serious challengers. Senegal at 4.40 marks them out as a very credible challenger for 2nd place. Norway at 26.00 remain a serious outsider with Haaland. Iraq at 500.00 are pure outsiders.

📍 Schedule and Venues

Group I matches will be played from 16 to 26 June 2026 on the US East Coast:

• 16 June: France vs Senegal (MetLife Stadium, New York) – HEADLINE AND SYMBOLIC FIXTURE

• 18 June: Iraq vs Norway (TBC)

• 22 June: France vs Iraq (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)

• 22 June: Senegal vs Norway (TBC)

• 26 June: Simultaneous final matchday (venues confirmed)

🏆 Final Prediction

Likely winner: 🥇 FRANCE – Tournament favourite, Mbappé at his peak, a complete squad

France clearly have the most complete squad and should win this group. The 1.45 odds accurately reflect that dominance.

Second favourite: 🥈 SENEGAL – AFCON runners-up, Mané leading the line, credible contenders

Senegal have the attacking talent to fight for 2nd place. Mané is a leader capable of rallying the side.

Credible outsiders: Norway with Haaland can spring surprises, Iraq are living a historic moment

Norway with Haaland can trouble any opponent. Iraq are enjoying a historic return.

Final verdict: France finish top comfortably. Senegal qualify in 2nd with a very high probability. Norway can spring surprises via the new format (best 3rd-placed sides). Iraq are living a historic moment but lack the resources for likely qualification. This remains a group dominated by France, but the storylines are rich.